Assume that the interest rate starts at 4% and in each period and either increases by 2% or decreases by 2% (from 4% up to 6% or down to 2% would be the first move). The risk-neutral probabilities of ups and downs are all 1/2.
This is a one-period discount bond with face of $100 and an interest rate
equal to the initial rate of 4%. Therefore, the price is
100
---- ~ $96.15
1.04
interest tree:
8%
/
6%
/ \
4% 4%
\ /
2%
\
0%
discount bond price:
100
/
94.34
/ \
92.49 100
\ /
98.04
\
100
cash flows:
30
/
10
/ \
0 0
\ /
-10
\
-30
price (pre-cash flow)
30
/
24.151
/ \
-0.267 0
\ /
-24.706
\
-30
calculations:
10 + (30 + 0)/2/1.06 = 24.151
-10 + (0 - 30)/2/1.02 = -24.706
(24.151 - 24.706)/2/1.04 = -.267
Assume that the interest rate starts at 6% and in each period and either increases by 2% or decreases by 2% (from 6% up to 8% or down to 4%). The risk-neutral probabilities of ups and downs are 1/2.
$94.3 = 100/1.06
quoted spot rates:
10%
/
8%
/ \
6% 6%
\ /
4%
\
2%
discount bond prices
100
/
92.6
/ \
$89.0 100
\ /
96.2
\
100
92.6 = 100/1.08, 96.2 = 100/1.04, 89.0 = 0.5 * (92.6 + 96.2)/1.06
cash flows
0
/
0
/ \
0 1
\ /
3
\
5
Values
0
/
0.46
/ \
$2.99 1
\ /
5.88
\
5
0.46 = 0.5 * 1/1.08, 5.88 = 3 + 0.5*(1 + 5)/1.04, 2.99 = 0.5*(0.46 + 5.88)/1.06